Research

The Earth system is complex, nonlinear, and full of surprises, and I find that deeply fascinating, yet also worrying. Right now, we are running an uncontrolled climate experiment on a system we do not fully understand, with feedback loops that can rewire themselves in ways that are abrupt, far-reaching, and difficult to reverse. My research sits at the intersection of climate tipping points, feedback mechanisms, and the uncertainties that emerge when different parts of the Earth system interact.

To study this, I work across the Climate Model Hierarchy: from comprehensive Earth System Models to stylised conceptual approaches, using a combination of mathematical, numerical, and data analysis methods. Wisely combining these levels of complexity is how I try to build a truthful picture of the risks we are actually facing, and understand a system that will keep surprising us.

Tipping points Interaction & feedback mechanisms Earth system & ecosystem resilience Dynamical systems theory Complex systems Network analysis Multivariate & multimodel approaches Uncertainty quantification Bayesian inference

Projects

Publications

(preprint) TOAD v1. 0: A Python Framework for Detecting Abrupt Shifts and Coherent Spatial Domains in Earth-System Data
Jakob Harteg, Lukas Röhrich, Kobe De Maeyer, Julius Garbe, Boris Sakschewski, Ann Kristin Klose, Jonathan F Donges, Ricarda Winkelmann, Sina Loriani. · submitted to Geoscientific Model Development (GMD)
TOAD is a software tool that helps scientists find and compare abrupt shifts in climate model data making it easier to identify where and when parts of the Earth system might be approaching a tipping point.
2026